Abstract
Forecasting intensity changes in tropical cyclones (TCs) is a complex and challenging multiscale problem. While cloud-resolving numerical models using a horizontal grid resolution of 1–3 km are starting to show some skill in predicting the intensity changes in individual cases, it is not clear at this time what may be a reasonable horizontal resolution for forecasting TC intensity changes on a day-to-day-basis. The Experimental Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting System (HWRFX) was used within an idealized framework to gain a fundamental understanding of the influence of horizontal grid resolution on the dynamics of TC vortex intensification in three dimensions. HWFRX is a version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model specifically adopted and developed jointly at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) for studying the intensity change problem at a model grid resolution of about 3 km. Based on a series of numerical experiments at the current operating resolution of about 9 km and at a finer resolution of about 3 km, it was found that improved resolution had very little impact on the initial spinup of the vortex. An initial axisymmetric vortex with a maximum wind speed of 20 m s−1 rapidly intensified to 50 m s−1 within about 24 h in either case. During the spinup process, buoyancy appears to have had a pivotal influence on the formation of the warm core and the subsequent rapid intensification of the modeled vortex. The high-resolution simulation at 3 km produced updrafts as large as 48 m s−1. However, these extreme events were rare, and this study indicated that these events may not contribute significantly to rapid deepening. Additionally, although the structure of the buoyant plumes may differ at 9- and 3-km resolution, interestingly, the axisymmetric structure of the simulated TCs exhibited major similarities. Specifically, the similarities included a deep inflow layer extending up to about 2 km in height with a tangentially averaged maximum inflow velocity of about 12–15 m s−1, vertical updrafts with an average velocity of about 2 m s−1, and a very strong outflow produced at both resolutions for a mature storm. It was also found in either case that the spinup of the primary circulation occurred not only due to the weak inflow above the boundary layer but also due to the convergence of vorticity within the boundary layer. Nevertheless, the mature phase of the storm’s evolution exhibited significantly different patterns of behavior at 9 and 3 km. While the minimum pressure at the end of 96 h was 934 hPa for the 9-km simulation, it was about 910 hPa for the 3-km run. The maximum tangential wind at that time showed a difference of about 10 m s−1. Several sensitivity experiments related to the initial vortex intensity, initial radius of the maximum wind, and physics were performed. Based on ensembles of simulations, it appears that radial advection of the tangential wind and, consequently, radial flux of vorticity become important forcing terms in the momentum budget of the mature storm. Stronger convergence in the boundary layer leads to a larger transport of moisture fluxes and, subsequently, a stronger storm at higher resolution.
Large Intensity Changes in Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Supertyphoon Flo during TCM-90